Facebook the Super Bowl and Billions

by ray stasieczko July 03, 2017

I thought it would be interesting to explore the possibilities of the future in advertising.

Facebook hits two billion users, regardless of what your opinion of FB is, that is quite an accomplishment. Think about the global possibilities at Facebook’s disposal. Here's my thinking, and it starts with this statement.

 "Facebook will have the airing rights to the Super Bowl Soon."

So what is the commercial value for Facebook with the Super Bowl? You guessed it - commercials. Before I continue, let's go back in time.

Remember when direct mail changed forever? It was the birth of digital capabilities that changed direct mail. Solicitations could now be personalized. The print press and its capabilities changed forever. No more advertisements addressed to Current Resident.

“It’s not because something changes something forever that changes the world, the world continually changes because everything will forever change”

No more advertisements addressed to resident. Wow, personalization accompanied by better than ever data mining capabilities targeted customers with greater accuracy. Direct mail showed greater and greater returns. Of course, now direct mail is quickly becoming obsolete as the world shifts to digital media. Today’s data mining is unprecedented in its accuracy, and gets better every day. This accuracy and the speed in which a message can be delivered, read, and acted on changes the game for legacy media advertisers. The unimaginative and those too stubborn to modify will be left behind in a mail bag, in the corner of a closed post office.

Everyone must remember this;

“A company becomes obsolete when they focus on bringing the past to the future, instead of bringing the future to the present”

Ok, back to the future and our friends at Facebook. It is Sunday afternoon in late January and the world awaits kick off. Friends are sharing pictures of their favorite micro beer and bowls of Chili Cheetos. The Super Bowl parties around the world are going viral. Even Europe is forgiving the high jacking of the name football by the Americans. Around the world people are talking, Snap Chatting, and texting their friends and making new ones. As the game begins the first commercial airs and the world of advertising changes for ever. Unlike super bowls of the past the ads airing to the hundred plus million viewers are personalized. In a small town in Kansas, where there is no Pizza Hut, Tony's Pizza is benefiting by having the ability to advertise to over 2,000 customers, customers who all live within five miles of his restaurant. Tony is ecstatic, he delivers over 1900 pizzas, most delivered by UberEATS.

Facebook knew there was no Pizza Hut in that small Kansas town, they also no every other town minus a Pizza Hut or Papa Johns. So during this Super Bowl over 10,000 local pizza restaurants around the world are enabled to advertise to their local football Fans. The power of knowing what customers want will prove fruitful to Facebook. Facebook would become the first broadcast network where it's audience welcomes the ads they receive. Facebook’s new Motto could be this.

 “At Facebook, Our Customers know what they want, we just know it first.”

The amount of ad revenue will be astronomic. Over the last 51 years, the total amount spent on Super Bowl ad's was around 5 billion, remember that is the total over 51 years.

So think of this, let’s say 100 million people decide to watch the game on Facebook, which is only 5% of their daily users. In 2017 around 110 million tuned in to watch the game. Let’s say each viewer receives 100 commercials personalized to them. In 2017 there were 110 commercials during the game. Think about these personalized ads here are some examples.

The local microbrewery, local Insurance providers, beauticians, barbers, car dealers, golf courses, pizza parlors, local jewelry stores, etc., just use your imagination. Here’s an example of a personalized ad: “Congratulations Barb and Ken on your upcoming wedding have you bought your Rings yet.” The possibilities are endless. Facebook will give the Small Business Community across the world access to the Super Bowl viewers’ throughout the world. The Nutcracker factory in Germany can advertise and sell to the lady in Ohio, who has room on her shelve for a couple authentic handmade Nutcrackers. Facebook is helping the lady from Ohio by knowing what she wants and would appreciate. At the same time Facebook is helping a small German Nutcracker factory find a customer on the other side of the world. 

So now, let’s do some math. With 100 million people watching there would be the potential to advertise millions of companies. Each viewer gets 100 commercials the number of personalized ads is almost incomprehensible.

First, let’s go back and look at the cost of those personalized direct mail pieces. Postage alone between 15 and 20 cents for third class mail, artwork materials etc... Each piece conservatively averages 50 cents. So the question is this, how much would an advertiser pay to get a predictable purchaser's attention?

I’ll keep it simple, 100 million viewers receive 100 commercials. Facebook provides 20 spots to the big corporations leaving 80 spots for the small local companies. Eighty ad spots times 100 million equals 8 billion, yes that’s 8 billion! Well, they probably wouldn’t do eight billion personalized ads this first Super Bowl. So let’s say they do half that or 4 billion and charge 50 cents each. The same cost or less as the obsolete direct mail model. This new advertising model would generate two billion dollars in four hours. Of course, they still have those twenty spots for Pepsi, Budweiser, and the Geico creature everyone loves. This super bowl in our near future would generate over 50% of the total ad revenues collected during the last 51 years combined.

Of course, what if 10% of Facebook’s users tuned in, well, you do the math? The Super Bowl is just the practice round for the Olympics, World Soccer, or many other possibilities. So now, who thinks Mark Zuckerberg has no real business? Isn’t about time airing the Super Bowl, or any world event, and its advertising was disrupted. What do you think Mark Zuckerberg? Or Will Jeff Bezos beat you to it?

Ray Stasieczko

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